Weekly Risk
Intelligence Brief

The US Section 232 automotive tariff regime continues to reshape global trade flows. A 25% tariff remains on non-USMCA vehicle and parts imports. European OEMs face a 15% tariff under a conditional EU–US deal. VW, BMW and Mercedes collectively reported $6 billion in losses from 2025 tariff impact. Ford is seeking tariff relief after aluminium supply disruptions significantly raised F-150 production costs. The USMCA renegotiation — front and centre in 2026 — adds further uncertainty for supply chains crossing North American borders.

If you export components to North American OEM customers, your pricing competitiveness is under direct pressure. If your customers are European OEMs, their margin squeeze is now being passed upstream — expect renegotiation pressure on existing contracts. First-quarter 2026 US new light-vehicle sales are projected to drop 7% year-on-year, signalling weaker downstream demand.

Ransomware incidents in automotive doubled in 2025, now accounting for 44% of all reported cyber incidents. 92% of attacks were conducted remotely with no physical access required. The Jaguar Land Rover ransomware attack caused a five-week production shutdown, impacted approximately 5,000 organisations across its UK supply chain, and forced several suppliers into insolvency. UNECE WP.29 compliance frameworks are now taking effect globally, requiring manufacturers and supply chains to demonstrate formal cyber risk management.

As a supplier, you are both a direct ransomware target and a potential entry point into your OEM customer's systems. A single compromised supplier system can trigger recalls, production shutdowns and contract liability. WP.29 compliance is no longer optional — OEMs are increasingly requiring supplier adherence as a condition of new and renewed contracts.

The global EV forecast has been revised downward for 2026 as governments phase out purchase incentives. BEV growth is now projected at 5% year-on-year, down sharply from 22% in 2025. Hybrids are increasingly treated as a long-term segment rather than a transitional technology. The Iran conflict is also reducing helium supply — critical to semiconductor manufacturing — raising fresh chip shortage risks that could slow connected vehicle production lines in H2 2026.

If your product mix is weighted toward pure BEV components, demand signals from OEMs may soften in H2 2026. Hybrid-compatible components are likely to see more sustained volume than originally forecast. If chip supply tightens again, OEMs will prioritise allocation to highest-margin vehicles, which may affect your forward order volumes and production scheduling.